Tokyo Tracker: Women's ranking race boils down to the final American berth

It seems odd, that the longest Olympic qualifying race in beach volleyball’s relatively young Olympic history will come down to this: two events. Only two events remain in a race that began in the fall of 2019, a date that feels an eternity ago.

And there are, barring something extraordinary – we’ll touch on that – only three teams still vying for the final Olympic spot, to be earned via the Olympic rankings.

The final two events of the Olympic qualifying period, in Sochi, Russia, and Ostrava, Czech Republic, is a miniature race between Kerri Walsh Jennings and Brooke Sweat, Sarah Sponcil and Kelly Claes, and Emily Stockman and Kelley Kolinske.

Why those three, when the men’s race is still being contested by close to half a dozen? It’s a combination of factors, but at the end of the day, Italians Marta Menegatti and Viktoria Orsi Toth hold a 680-point lead over the Austrians Lena Plesiutschnig and Katharina Schutzenhofer for the final ranking berth. It is not mathematically impossible for the Austrians to make that leap, just improbable.

Should Plesiutschnig and Schutzenhofer pull it off, it would be an impressive feat, and one of the better storylines of this Olympic race.

It is equally improbable for Stockman and Kolinske to make the jump over Walsh Jennings and Sweat as well. They are exactly 600 points down from Walsh Jennings and Sweat, who are holding onto the second American berth to Tokyo – the first is owned, with a vice grip, by April Ross and Alix Klineman. For Kolinske and Stockman to remain in the race, they must be within 400 points of Walsh Jennings and Sweat after Sochi, which means that they must, at the very least, take a bronze medal in Sochi and a gold in Ostrava. The only other combination of finishes that would work is a pair of silver medals, which does not factor in the possibility of Walsh Jennings and Sweat adding onto their current total of 6,960 points.

Improbable, but not impossible.

With Plesiutschnig and Schutzenhofer and Kolinske and Stockman both long-shot odds to accumulate the points needed, the most fascinating race remaining on the women’s side – not including Continental Cups, which will be a wild ride as well – boils down to whether Sponcil and Claes can catch Walsh Jennings and Sweat.

It’s a fun story. Here you have Walsh Jennings, one of the most globally-dominant athletes in the history of sport, a three-time gold medallist, making a run at what would be a remarkable sixth Olympic Games (remember, she played on the United States indoor team in 2000). Defending for Walsh Jennings is the consummate veteran in Sweat, who qualified for the 2016 Olympics and has overcome more injuries and adversity in her career than many entire federations.

Chasing them are, relatively speaking, a couple of kids. At 24 and 25 years old, respectively, Claes and Sponcil are the youngest American team in the Olympic race. Sponcil began her professional career in the immediate aftermath of winning a National Championship at UCLA. She and Claes held an impromptu graduation ceremony on the court in Warsaw, Poland, in June of 2019. Their rate of improvement has been what you might expect from two of the best college players of all-time who are cutting their teeth together on the World Tour: fast and steep. They have made a main draw in 18 FIVB events, and finished in the top 10 in every single one of them.

A trio of top-five finishes in the previous four events – Doha, and twice in Cancun – has put them within 160 points of Walsh Jennings and Sweat.

Arguably just as important, those finishes have flipped their starting positions in the final two tournaments, with Claes and Sponcil now being seeded directly into the main draw, while Walsh Jennings and Sweat must begin in the country quota and qualifier for both Sochi and Ostrava.

In order to pass Walsh Jennings and Sweat, Claes and Sponcil need any of the following in the next two events:

• One bronze medal
• One silver medal
• One gold medal
• A pair of fourths would create a tie

Both teams can only improve upon their current standing with fourths or better. Walsh Jennings and Sweat can continue to add to their lead in the same manner Claes and Sponcil can catch them: fourths and medals.

So that’s what it comes down to: a medal is required for Claes and Sponcil – or Stockman and Kolinske and Plesiutschnig and Schutzenhofer – to make this Olympic Games.

It’s fitting, really.

An Olympic medal is the ultimate goal.

Might as well win one to get there.